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The secret of Betfair

It's always interesting to see how other people operate on Betfair. Here we follow a discussion started by a betfair bot who asked for five secrets of success on the exchanges.

I'll give you one.
Have an opinion based on objective assessment.

Best bots for betfair
If your looking for an answer, always choose more simplicity and less complication in your calculations

Patience and discipline.

Listen to others, but make your own decisions.

1 Discipline.
2 Discipline.
3 Discipline.
4 Discipline.
5 Discipline.

1.Understanding value.
2.Money management.

You are giving me the givens. I'm talking about the irrefutable laws not the behavioural characteristics or a good exchanger.

1. Creativity.
2. Discipline.
3. Determination.
4. Luck.
5. Understanding.

Actually, another vital component is simply having enough free time to put into it.

Ricky R
Some good suggestions above.
No luck required though.
Break the rules, or more correctly; try and break the rules and that ultimately means you conclude on new ones.

Ricky R
Perhaps a better way of saying break the rules is:
Think outside of the box. That comes back to the idea of creativity/imagination.


Ricky, if it weren't for events beyond my control I probably wouldn't be on here trading at all. Also, one sometimes tries ideas and finds they do much better than they ever should do, because by luck you have stumbled across something very important.

Ricky R
Well, without getting to weird pumpkin.

I'd say that when "one sometimes tries ideas and finds they do much better than they ever should do", is not luck. But applied effort at breaking the rules or thinking outside the box. Whatever you call it, ideas like that are certainly can have a positive impact.

Ricky R
"You are giving me the givens. I'm talking about the irrefutable laws not the behavioural characteristics or a good exchanger."

The first rule.

There are no rules.

Yes, it is part of the creative process. It's a matter of definition I suppose. One has ideas, tries things, some work, some don't, some work much better than expected. Perhaps not luck, but the outcome of the process. I feel I have had luck at times, but you could look at it as all being a result of one natural process.

Ricky R
Creators of good luck don't see a mistake as a failure. Instead, a mistake is an opportunity for learning. Thomas Edison is the classic example. More than 1,000 attempts to invent the first long-lasting electric light bulb led to bulbs that only stayed lit for a few minutes. One of Edison's colleagues asked him, "Mr. Edison, don't you feel you are a failure?" Lacking any sense of vanity, he answered, "Not at all. Now, I definitely know more than a thousand ways how NOT to make a light bulb."

Sure enough, just a few days later, he turned his inspiration into a practical concept. By the way, the very first light bulb was invented by Sir Joseph Wilson Swan, who demonstrated the theoretical concept but gave up trying to develop a practical application after only three attempts. By contrast, Edison made his own good luck and designed a working light bulb.

First rule about Betfair is you do not talk about Betfair,second rule about betfair is you DO NOT talk about Betdaq.

Ricky R
I don't believe in luck as I don't believe in coincidence.
There are things that appear to be a coincidence and things that appear to be luck.

However I do accept that given the Newtonian science taught in education that 99% of people will disagree with me, and what is more, that there is little change of conveying anything to alter peoples perspective. It's not something that you can know through the intellect, but rather through observtion and experience.

What I call luck and is increasingly called in research situations, is the influence of so called coincidences and therefore the creating of your own luck.

Ricky R
BoosterRooster, May I ask why?

The Sound Man
1.Enter low risk trades. (Get Value)
2.Cut losses short, let profits run.
3.Keep stakes relatively small.
4.Withdraw profits regularly.

Here's my view...no real secrets just qualities

The secret is to look for value.
Know your subject you are betting on.
Formulate an opinion and stick to it.
Cut your losses when bet goes against you.
If you can lay off cheaply in a sport or horse race with lot of time still left do so.
Money management is key.
Build profits gradually and progressively.
Don't be afraid to ask for a better price...and don't take what layers offer you always.
Don't chase a false price in first place...if price is unacceptably short lay it.
Discipline discipline discipline.
Don't bet more you can afford to lose.
Bet in-running as much as you can especially near the business end of games e.g. football, basketball, cricket - you will usually get the winner and minimise lots of losing bets.

Honestly, I am a loser!
A fluctuating price looks a good thing to utilise, such as in a horse race when if you bet or lay and the price moves against you it usually comes back , so don't panic. That is in races where the betting is well exposed .
Don't be drawn into markets such as next manager where you are likely to bet more and more candidates and end up backing to save your stake, and lose it !
Have a definite objective (most important) know what you're looking for .
Have an understanding and knowledge of the sport and the market so you can spot a RICK IN THE PRICES.
Talk less and do more .

There's only one rule, and that is ONLY bet when, in your opinion, the price is wrong.

If you're trying out a new idea, especially in a new sport, do it at least 5 times in small size before going to your usual level.

Keep the wife muzzled and locked in the loft - minimising needless interruptions

Keep honest detailed records.
Don't chase losers.
Be prepared to turn off for a week.

Dr J
'Money management' has been mentioned several times during thread. Would anyone care to elaborate? Sounds a bit cliched to me.

Thin and Crispy
1. Buy a comfy chair.
2. Build a Bot.
3. Switch Bot on.
4. Watch money roll in.
5. Sit in comfy chair and think of reasons why you shouldn't pay income tax.

1) Never stop learning, never consider yourself a master.
2) It can't be done.

1. Join before circa 2003
2. Deposit some money
3. Have an edge.
4. Have balls of steel but don't gamble
5. Make a profit

New bluey
Thin and Crispy, answer me this:

If the bots are so brilliant why do they disappear (never, ever to return... I dare you to come back) when someone works out how to beat them?

Stop laying the winning outsiders.

I have another rule that I've recently given myself ....... To enjoy it ! ... Not to lose the enthusiasm ... When i used to trade/lay horses I really hated it at times (& i mean really) ... since I've quit that (well just about) I'm a lot happier about my betting/trading long term !

To get the advantage of the odds level stakes has great appeal, especially on the outsiders. But of course it takes lots of patience , I suspect that not too many people are that patient. Then there is the 'best of both worlds' bet. An outsider for value and short price to save the stake.

Urs Meier
Discipline don't lose your head. You have to be selective.

Call yourself a real pro.

Urs Meier
Value + Discipline =



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